Seasonal forecast maps from five global models, side by side
seasonforecasts puts the seasonal outlooks of ECMWF, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, DWD and CMCC on synchronized maps with one shared valid period and one colour scale. Pan and zoom one map and the others follow. Click a location and every panel reports the value on its original 1° grid.
What you can compare
- Models at one initialization. Up to four seasonal centres for the same run month, so differences are the models and not the start date.
- Monthly runs from one model. See how a centre’s outlook for the same target month has shifted between successive initializations.
- Four fields. 2 m temperature, precipitation, mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature anomalies.
- Eight forecast types. Ensemble mean anomaly, tercile summary, probability of exceeding the median, lower, middle and upper tercile probabilities, and lowest and highest quintile probabilities.
- Monthly and three-month periods. Six monthly lead times and four three-month windows per run.
Where the data comes from
All forecasts come from the Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecast catalogue. Anomalies are relative to each system’s own 1993–2016 hindcast climatology, so the models are compared on equal terms. Probabilities are derived from forecast members and matching hindcasts following the documented C3S method. Seasonal models only: no short-range, medium-range or sub-seasonal products.