ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast maps
ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast maps for temperature, precipitation, pressure and SST. Compare SEAS5 with UK Met Office, Météo-France, DWD and CMCC on one shared valid period.
SEAS5 is the fifth generation of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system, operational since November 2017. It couples the Integrated Forecasting System atmosphere with the NEMO ocean model and an interactive sea-ice model. Real-time forecasts start on the first day of each month with 51 ensemble members, and ECMWF also runs a multi-decade hindcast that C3S uses to define the model climate.
On this site SEAS5 appears as system 51, the version identifier in the Copernicus catalogue. Probabilities are computed from all 51 forecast members against 25 hindcast members for each of the 24 reference years.
At a glance
| Centre | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts |
|---|---|
| System | SEAS5 (C3S system 51) |
| Forecast members used | 51 |
| Hindcast members | 25 per hindcast year |
| Reference period | 1993–2016 hindcast climatology |
| Grid | 1° global, ±85° latitude shown |
| Lead times | Six monthly leads; four three-month windows |
| Fields | 2 m temperature, precipitation, mean sea-level pressure, sea-surface temperature |
| Forecast types | Ensemble mean anomaly, tercile summary, median exceedance, tercile and quintile probabilities |
| Source | Copernicus C3S seasonal forecast catalogue |
New initializations are imported monthly. The system version is taken from the live Copernicus catalogue for each run, so the version shown on a map panel always matches the data behind it.
Open ECMWF in the workspace
- Compare the two latest ECMWF runs
- ECMWF tercile summary
- ECMWF precipitation anomaly
- ECMWF vs UK Met Office GloSea6
- ECMWF vs Météo-France Météo-France seasonal system
- ECMWF vs DWD GCFS 2.2
- ECMWF vs CMCC SPS4