Météo-France System 9 seasonal forecast maps
Météo-France seasonal forecast maps (C3S system 9) for temperature, precipitation, pressure and SST anomalies and probabilities, compared with four other seasonal models.
Météo-France System 9, operational since May 2025, couples the ARPEGE atmosphere and SURFEX land surface with NEMO 4.2 and the SI³ sea-ice model.
The imported C3S system 9 ensembles contain 51 forecast members and 31 hindcast members per reference year. They combine starts on the last two Thursdays of the previous month with one start on the first of the nominal month. This site uses the full encoded ensembles and the 1993–2016 subset of the available hindcasts for probabilities.
Configuration source: Météo-France C3S contribution documentation. Identifiers and ensemble schedules: C3S multi-system description.
Coverage and processing on this site
| Centre | Météo-France |
|---|---|
| System | System 9 (C3S system 9) |
| Forecast members used for probabilities | 51 |
| Hindcast members used for probabilities | 31 per hindcast year |
| Reference period | 1993–2016 hindcast climatology |
| Published grid | C3S 1° global output; ±85° latitude shown. Native model grids differ. |
| Imported lead times | Lead months 1–6; four three-month windows. Some systems forecast further ahead. |
| Variables | 2 m temperature, precipitation, mean sea-level pressure, sea-surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, 10 m wind speed and 850 hPa temperature |
| Products | Ensemble mean anomaly, tercile summary, median exceedance, tercile and outer-quintile probabilities |
| Source datasets | C3S monthly anomalies and monthly member statistics. Z500 and T850 use the corresponding pressure-level anomalies and pressure-level member statistics. |
These details describe the imported August and September 2026 runs. Each import resolves the system identifier for that initialization and checks it against the source metadata. Imports are run manually; a new monthly forecast may be available from the centre before it appears here. Check the initialization and system on the map panel.
Monthly ensemble-mean anomalies are supplied by C3S. Probabilities and three-month products are derived locally from operational C3S data; they are not synthetic sample forecasts. Member counts above describe the local probability calculation, not necessarily the full ensemble offered by a centre. See the C3S product definitions and the probability guide for reference and processing conventions.
Météo-France against the other models
Each link opens Météo-France next to one other centre for the same October 2026 initialization, with a shared valid period and scale. Differences can reflect model formulation, initialization, ensemble sampling and each system’s hindcast climate; they do not establish which model is more skilful.
- Météo-France vs ECMWF SEAS5: January 2027 temperature
- Météo-France vs UK Met Office GloSea6-GC5.1: January 2027 temperature
- Météo-France vs DWD GCFS 2.2: January 2027 temperature
- Météo-France vs CMCC SPS4: January 2027 temperature
- ECMWF vs UK Met Office seasonal forecasts
- Europe seasonal temperature outlook: five models compared
- How the seasonal outlook changed between monthly runs