Europe seasonal temperature outlook: five models compared
The Europe-average temperature anomaly each seasonal model forecasts for the months ahead, from the latest Copernicus C3S runs, with links to the maps.
What this page shows
The table gives the Europe-average 2 m temperature anomaly that each of the five C3S seasonal systems forecasts for every month of its September 2026 run, alongside the mean across models and the spread between the warmest and coolest system. It is a summary of the maps, not a forecast product of its own: the numbers are computed from the same published ensemble-mean grids that the workspace draws, and every row links to the corresponding map.
| Valid month | Lead month | ECMWF | UK Met Office | Météo-France | CMCC | DWD | Mean of models | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.99 | +0.91 | +1.64 | +2.07 | +1.37 | +0.91 to +2.07 |
| October 2026 | 2 | +0.66 | +1.06 | +0.80 | +1.14 | +1.37 | +1.01 | +0.66 to +1.37 |
| November 2026 | 3 | +0.74 | +1.24 | +0.71 | +0.96 | +1.05 | +0.94 | +0.71 to +1.24 |
| December 2026 | 4 | +0.99 | +1.21 | +0.78 | +0.58 | +1.38 | +0.99 | +0.58 to +1.38 |
| January 2027 | 5 | +0.93 | +1.30 | +0.86 | +0.48 | +1.01 | +0.92 | +0.48 to +1.30 |
| February 2027 | 6 | +0.65 | +1.21 | +0.95 | +0.37 | +1.39 | +0.91 | +0.37 to +1.39 |
Europe average: 35°N–71°N, 11°W–40°E, land and sea cells, area-weighted. Values are ensemble-mean anomalies relative to each system’s own 1993–2016 hindcast climatology, computed from the same 1° grids the maps draw. Data imported from the C3S catalogue on 2026-09-12.
Precipitation for the same runs
| Valid month | Lead month | ECMWF | UK Met Office | Météo-France | CMCC | DWD | Mean of models | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.04 to +0.14 |
| October 2026 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +0.18 | +0.05 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.05 to +0.27 |
| November 2026 | 3 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.18 to +0.21 |
| December 2026 | 4 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.19 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.17 | +0.11 to +0.22 |
| January 2027 | 5 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.05 | 0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 to +0.13 |
| February 2027 | 6 | +0.17 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.05 to +0.20 |
How to read the outlook
- The baseline is 1993–2016. Europe has warmed since, so a positive anomaly is the expected background and an anomaly near zero is cooler than recent years. Read the differences between models and months, not the absolute values as news.
- Agreement is the signal. Five systems that all lean the same way for the same month are more convincing than one large number. A wide range between models with a modest mean is a split ensemble, and the honest reading is uncertainty.
- Lead matters. Lead 1 is the month the run started and partly overlaps weather already under way. By lead 5 and 6 the ensemble spread is wide and mean anomalies shrink. See lead time, initialization and valid period.
- An average is not a map. The Europe box spans Iceland to the Urals. A warm south and a cool north can average to a small number; open the map for the month before drawing a conclusion.
- None of this is verified skill. European seasonal temperature is modestly predictable in winter and summer and weakly in the transition seasons; precipitation is close to unpredictable. See why a probability is not forecast skill.
Previous runs
The August 2026 values for the months both runs cover are on how the outlook changed between monthly runs. This page is regenerated after each monthly import and always describes the latest run in the catalogue; the import date is in the byline above.